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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."